How resilient are today's wood-frame residential buildings to tomorrow's climate?
As temperatures and humidity levels continue to rise, building envelopes may face challenges they were never designed for. This study investigates how future climate conditions could affect the risk of mold growth in wood-framed residential walls across three major U.S. cities: New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.
Using advanced hygrothermal and mold-growth simulations with projected future weather data, the researchers evaluated wall assemblies from different construction eras. The results reveal a significant increase in mold risk for many older, code-compliant wall designs, particularly those incorporating highly impermeable vapor barriers. In contrast, contemporary wall assemblies performed well and showed no increased mold risk under future climate scenarios.
The paper highlights a potentially overlooked climate resilience challenge affecting a large portion of the existing housing stock and provides a framework for assessing future moisture and durability risks in building envelopes.
What to expect: Insights into climate-driven moisture risks, comparison of historic and contemporary wall designs, and implications for the long-term resilience of existing residential buildings.